SPC MD 2242

SPC MD 2242


Mesoscale Discussion 2242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Areas affected…North-central Florida Peninsula

Concerning…Tornado Watch 707…

Valid 120645Z – 120845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 707 continues.

SUMMARY…A tornado threat will continue across parts of the
north-central Florida Peninsula tonight, as several potentially
tornadic supercells move further inland across north-central

DISCUSSION…The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large expanse
of rainfall from the Florida Panhandle extending eastward across the
northern Florida Peninsula. A warm front is located near the
southern edge of this large area of rain. Several discrete
supercells, potentially tornadic, are ongoing across the western
Florida Panhandle to the north of Tampa Bay. These cells will likely
remain intact, moving northeastward across the north-central Florida
Peninsula over the next few hours. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Tampa
Bay and Melbourne, Florida have strong speed and directional shear
in the lowest 1 km resulting in a clockwise turning hodograph. This
is resulting in storm-relative helicity near 400 m2/s2, which is
ideal for tornadoes. Short-term model forecasts continue to increase
low-level shear late tonight, which will result in a continued
tornado threat over the next 3 to 4 hours. Although a lull in storms
is expected along the immediate west coast of the Florida Peninsula,
an increase in cell coverage near the west coast may again take
place later this morning.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 29488263 29778235 29848200 29708127 29518111 29168111
28568153 27988228 27898248 27898260 27988275 28368278
28558275 29118271 29488263

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