Mesoscale Discussion 2243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0407 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Areas affected…North-central Florida
Concerning…Tornado Watch 707…
Valid 120907Z – 121100Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 707 continues.
SUMMARY…A tornado threat is expected to continue this morning
across parts of the north-central Florida Peninsula. Before the 13Z
expiration time of Tornado Watch 707, a new watch will likely need
to be issued for a continued tornado threat later this morning.
DISCUSSION…Latest surface analysis shows a east-to-west warm front
across the northern Florida Peninsula, to the south of a large area
of rain. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the south of the
front across north-central Florida in a very moist airmass, where
surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 70s and lower 80s F.
This is contributing to moderate instability over much of the
Florida Peninsula. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is
analyzed by the RAP over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico extending
into the north-central Florida Peninsula. This is contributing to
the strong low-level shear evident on the Tampa Bay WSR-88D VWP,
which has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity just above 400 m2/s2. The
strong low-level shear will continue to be favorable for tornadoes,
associated with the stronger rotating cells. While the tornado
threat may become more isolated over the next hour as the stronger
cells move off the east coast, an increase in the tornado threat
will again be possible near and after daybreak as the center of the
850 mb jet approaches the western coast of the Florida Peninsula.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 27928169 27658252 28048280 28758264 29098272 29488268
29708217 29448124 28908088 28388099 27928169