MD 2244 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 707… FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Areas affected…North-central Florida Peninsula
Concerning…Tornado Watch 707…
Valid 121209Z – 121345Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 707 continues.
SUMMARY…The tornado threat across north-central Florida will
likely continue for several more hours this morning. New watch
issuance will be need to be issued by 13Z, to replace the current
watch 707.
DISCUSSION…The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
in place across most of the central and northern Florida Peninsula,
where surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 70s and lower 80s
F. This, combined with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s F, is
contributing to moderate instability. The RAP has MLCAPE generally
in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition to the instability,
strong low-level shear is present across north-central Florida. The
Tampa Bay and Melbourne WSR-88D VWPs continue to show 0-3
storm-relative helicity in the 350 to 425 m2/s2 range. This is due
to a 60 to 70 knot low-level jet, which is currently moving across
north-central Florida. In response to the favorable low-level shear,
the tornado threat is expected to continue for several more hours.
For this reason, a new weather watch will be needed to replace WW
707.
..Broyles.. 10/12/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MLB…TBW…JAX…TAE…
LAT…LON 28148059 27838075 27488121 27368187 27548256 27868280
28478267 28968279 29478334 29798324 29918278 29888219
29658138 29128096 28518062 28148059
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