Mesoscale Discussion 2245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Areas affected…Tampa Bay vicinity
Concerning…Tornado Watch 708…
Valid 121553Z – 121800Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 708 continues.
SUMMARY…The greatest risk for a brief tornado may focus near the
greater Tampa Bay vicinity through 200pm (1800 UTC).
DISCUSSION…Recent surface analysis indicates a very moist/buoyant
airmass is located over the west-central portion of the FL Peninsula
with mid-upper 80s deg F temperatures and near 80 deg dewpoints.
This airmass was sampled by the 12 UTC TBW raob and little change
has likely occurred thermodynamically except for slightly warmer
surface temperatures. As a larger cluster of the convection west of
Tampa Bay moves towards the bay over the next 1-2 hours, expecting
intermittent/transient rotation with the stronger updrafts embedded
within the larger convective cluster. 40-kt southwesterly 1-km AGL
flow will maintain sufficiently enlarged hodographs for at least the
next few hours and potentially favor transient low-level mesocyclone
development capable of an isolated risk for near-shore
waterspouts/tornadoes. It is unclear whether some of the focused
tornado risk will be maintained as this activity moves farther
inland into the central portions of the peninsula.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 27898290 28178260 28288232 28238211 28048214 27698247
27358257 27308273 27648292 27898290