MD 2246 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL NE…FAR NORTHERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 2246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Areas affected…central NE…far northern KS
Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely
Valid 121729Z – 121930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Storm development is expected initially near the triple
point in the vicinity of I-80 and subsequently southward along the
cold front. Storms acquiring supercell characteristics moving into
a vorticity-rich and adequately unstable boundary layer near the
warm front/triple point will be capable of tornadoes. Large hail
(max size 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter) will be the primary threat
with storms not posing a tornado risk. A tornado watch is likely
needed by around 2pm CDT.
DISCUSSION…Visible-satellite imagery shows extensive stratus
across northern/eastern KS northward into NE. The stratus has begun
to erode in a narrow zone immediately east of the front extending
northward to the triple point. At least 1-2 hours of surface
heating will act to quickly destabilize the boundary layer and erode
convective inhibition as mid-level large-scale ascent/CAA continues
to lift/cool the profile. Surface flow veering from southeasterly
to southwesterly in the mid levels and strengthening within this
layer will support updraft rotation with the more robust updrafts.
Of particular note, forecast soundings show large CAPE in the low to
mid troposphere—indicative of potentially strong stretching
potential with any rotating updrafts that manage to move into the
favored zone immediately near the triple point/warm frontal zone.
Large hail is forecast with the more intense updrafts regardless
whether the storms are in the warm sector or become elevated north
of the warm front. The tornado risk will likely be confined
near/south of I-80 into perhaps far northern KS where supercells can
potentially harness large 0-3 km CAPE and low-level vorticity. The
greatest risk for severe thunderstorms/tornadoes will probably
coincide with a 3pm-7pm timeframe.
..Smith/Guyer.. 10/12/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OAX…TOP…GID…LBF…GLD…
LAT…LON 40980012 41809999 42149951 42189878 42029831 41609793
39989792 39439835 39209915 39259991 39530011 40980012
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