Mesoscale Discussion 2249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023
Areas affected…central Nebraska south to central Kansas
Concerning…Tornado Watch 709…
Valid 122211Z – 130015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 709 continues.
SUMMARY…Local severe risk — including potential for a brief
tornado or two — continues, but should gradually decrease with time
early this evening.
DISCUSSION…Strong storms are ongoing at this time in the vicinity
of a surface low centered over south-central Nebraska. The
convection has progressed to the eastern/northeastern fringe of the
instability axis, and with the onset of nocturnal stabilization,
instability should diminish further.
While low-level and deep-layer shear remain otherwise quite
favorable for severe storms, the thermodynamic limitations suggest
that severe risk should gradually wane over the next few hours. At
this time, with WW 709 scheduled for a 13/00Z expiration, additional
WW issuance appears unlikely downstream of the existing convection.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 39239857 40269888 40759939 42509935 42339815 41379695
39599642 38799679 38779772 39239857