SPC MD 2252

SPC MD 2252

MD 2252 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 710… FOR EAST-CENTRAL IOWA INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS

Mesoscale Discussion 2252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Areas affected…east-central Iowa into western Illinois

Concerning…Tornado Watch 710…

Valid 132219Z – 132345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 710 continues.

SUMMARY…The threat for severe storms including the risk of a
brief/weak tornado appears to be diminishing, and additional watches
are unlikely.

DISCUSSION…A line of relatively shallow convection currently
extends from near the surface low over central IA southeastward into
western IL, along an occluding front and beneath cool temperatures
aloft with the upper trough. While visible satellite shows clearing
over southern parts of the area toward St. Louis, instability is
very weak. Objective analysis show MLCAPE generally less than 250
J/kg, and minimal lightning within the existing frontal band
supports this fact.

Given the narrow warm sector, loss of heating, and primarily cloud
covered areas east of the surging front/dryline, it appears the
severe weather threat will continue to decrease across the watch
area. Some uptick in thunderstorm intensity cannot be ruled out
farther south near the aforementioned heating plume, the very weak
instability should preclude much of a severe risk despite the
otherwise favorable large-scale synoptic pattern.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…ILX…LSX…DVN…DMX…

LAT…LON 38999100 39779102 40419137 41119200 41809291 42059286
42139234 41379094 40769036 40259021 39619023 39179035
38979064 38919076 38999100

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