MD 2256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023
Areas affected…Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 240227Z – 240530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Elevated supercells may develop in the next 2-3 hours.
These storms will be capable of large hail (1.5-2 in.). A watch is
possible.
DISCUSSION…Subtle signs of lift are evident in parts of
west-central/northwest Iowa on IR satellite imagery. The KOAX VAD is
showing the low-level jet at around 40 kts already this evening.
This is expected to increase into the overnight. Lift along a warm
front will eventually support potentially scattered elevated
thunderstorm development within the next 2-3 hours. The 00Z observed
OAX sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates. Though more
muted, these lapse rates also extend into Iowa/Minnesota per this
evenings DVN/MPX soundings. Mid/upper-level winds are strong enough
to support long hodographs and 35-40 kt of effective shear. The
strongest storms will be supercellular and capable of large hail
(1.5-2 in.). Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a
watch is possible this evening.
..Wendt.. 10/24/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ARX…MPX…DMX…FSD…OAX…
LAT…LON 44049223 43919483 43719570 43149635 42389651 41989635
41909551 42159468 42589272 43019151 43539134 43859145
44049223
Comments