Mesoscale Discussion 2258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023
Areas affected…southwest New Mexico
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 241700Z – 241900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may develop over the
next few hours across southeast New Mexico. Local small hail and
gusty winds may accompany the strongest storms. The overall severe
threat appears low, and a watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorm development continues near the center of a
mid-/upper-level shortwave trough currently propagating eastward
through southern Arizona, New Mexico, and northwestern Mexico.
Colder temperatures aloft and diurnal heating are supporting updraft
development along the higher terrain, with strong
south-southwesterly flow driving subsequent storm motion
northeastward. Mesoanalysis suggests eroding inhibition and
gradually increasing MLCAPE across the area, perhaps up to around
500 J/kg currently. MESH values around 1 inch have been observed
recently with the strongest cores. Relatively moist low levels,
gradually steepening lapse rates, and strengthening 0-6-km shear
should support this activity continuing through the early afternoon.
Localized small hail up to 1-1.5 inches and gusty winds should be
the primary concerns across the area for the next few hours. A watch
is not anticipated for this activity, but upscale growth and
environmental evolution will continue to be monitored for possible
downstream hazards later this afternoon.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 31920896 32510892 32980868 33280807 33410718 33430631
33370603 33200580 32870560 32480566 31990605 31880657
31860727 31870829 31390829 31410882 31920896