MD 0226 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38… FOR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Areas affected…Eastern KS into western/northern MO and
west-central IL
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38…
Valid 140730Z – 140900Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38
continues.
SUMMARY…Hail and localized severe gusts will remain possible
overnight. Eventual downstream watch issuance is possible, depending
on convective trends.
DISCUSSION…At 0730 UTC, multiple storm clusters are ongoing from
eastern KS into western/northern MO and western IL. The most
vigorous ongoing cluster (based on radar and satellite trends) is
located across east-central/southeast KS, where a strong
mid/upper-level jet is impinging upon moderate to strong elevated
buoyancy (MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg). Steep midlevel lapse
rates, cold temperatures aloft, and sufficient effective shear will
support a hail threat with the strongest storms in this region,
though a possible transition to more of a linear mode may temper
hail potential to some extent. Also, despite the presence of some
low-level stability, localized severe gusts will continue to be
possible with this cluster, as indicated by a recent 59 mph gust
near Eureka, KS.
Other elevated storm clusters are ongoing in an east-west oriented
band from northeast KS into northern MO. Severe gusts have recently
been observed at Kirksville and Moberly, MO, and moderate elevated
buoyancy will continue to support a threat of isolated hail and
strong gusts as these clusters move eastward.
With time, a larger QLCS could evolve and accelerate eastward, as
the southeast KS cluster merges with convection and a related
outflow boundary to its north and northeast. This could lead to some
eventual increase in severe potential to the east of WW 38.
Depending on convective trends through the overnight hours, eventual
downstream watch issuance is possible.
..Dean/Edwards.. 03/14/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ILX…LSX…DVN…SGF…EAX…TOP…ICT…
LAT…LON 37029674 38059585 38999535 39919480 39869245 40519191
40839137 40879059 40778998 39958989 39489059 39199115
38829190 38269301 37569423 37279490 37239536 37079593
37029674
