MD 2260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 2260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024
Areas affected...portions of the central Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 111643Z - 111815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado cannot be
ruled out this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is rapidly approaching the FL
Peninsula, preceded by a loosely organized QLCS. These storms are
approaching a gradually destabilizing airmass, where surface
temperatures are exceeding 80 F amid 70 F dewpoints (supporting 1500
J/kg MLCAPE). While deep-layer shear and some low-level shear also
precedes the line, deep-layer ascent will continue to drift away
from FL, so shear should gradually weaken through the day. However,
a brief window of opportunity may exist for the buoyancy/shear
parameter space to briefly coincide to support a couple of damaging
gusts or a tornado with the stronger updrafts. Nonetheless, the
severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is unlikely.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/11/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27538263 29258190 29798153 29758127 29348096 28538062
27948052 27618066 26808114 26468147 26328187 26638220
27538263
