MD 2260 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023
Areas affected…southeastern New Mexico and southwestern Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 242209Z – 250045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms posing a risk for marginally severe hail and
locally strong wind gusts will gradually spread eastward off the
mountains, into and through the adjacent plains through 6-8 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION…Downstream of large-scale mid-level troughing slowly
turning east of the Baja Peninsula, the initiation of scattered
thunderstorms is now well underway along the eastern slopes of the
Sacramento, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains vicinity. This is being
supported by peak boundary-layer destabilization aided by daytime
heating, in the presence of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric
lapse rates and at least modest boundary-layer moisture.
Low-level wind fields are generally weak, and the convective-layer
appears largely below a belt of 80-90 kt high level southwesterly
flow (near and above the 300-250 mb) now crossing southwest Texas
through the Texas South Plains. However deep-layer shear is
probably still sufficient to support a couple of supercell storms
into early this evening.
There is at least some signal in the various model output that as
activity propagates off the higher terrain, it may eventually become
focused along a consolidating outflow boundary or weak cold front
advancing toward the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity by late
evening. However, it is not clear that this will pose a risk for
more than localized gusts which may remain mostly below severe
limits.
..Kerr/Hart.. 10/24/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LUB…MAF…ABQ…
LAT…LON 33170480 33950461 34060400 33850340 33460315 31620268
31110259 31030330 31400393 32290453 33170480
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