SPC MD 2261

SPC MD 2261


Mesoscale Discussion 2261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Areas affected…west Texas

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 250311Z – 250545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Some hail and locally strong wind gusts may accompany an
evolving squall line spreading east of the New Mexico/Texas state
border, and northeast/east of the Pecos valley through 1-2 AM CDT.
It still appears that a severe weather watch will not be needed, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION…Convection has gradually grown upscale into an evolving
squall line, generally focused on the leading edge of
lower/mid-tropospheric cooling slowly advancing toward the Texas
South Plains/Pecos Valley vicinity. Modest strengthening of ambient
southerly low-level flow (including to 30+ kt around 850 mb) is
contributing to strengthening easterly/southeasterly inflow of more
moist air advecting into the high plains. Beneath a remnant plume
of steeper lapse rates, associated instability probably will
maintain, or perhaps support some further intensification of, the
squall line late this evening into the overnight hours.

As this occurs, it is possible that channels of strengthening rear
inflow may continue to develop, accompanied by potential for
occasional locally strong wind gusts reaching the surface. However,
based on the output convection allowing guidance, including the
HRRR, and latest RAP/NAM forecast soundings, it still appears that
peak gusts will remain mostly below severe limits.

..Kerr/Hart.. 10/25/2023

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 34510238 34290074 32200141 30800300 31540341 32930273

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