MD 2262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2262
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023
Areas affected…Central/North-Central TX
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 251802Z – 252000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two are
possible across central/north-central Texas this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Convective outflow, which currently stretches from
Young County TX southward/south-southwestward to Kimble and Edwards
County TX, continues to gradually push eastward into
north-central/central TX. Updraft intensity in the thunderstorms
ongoing along this outflow boundary has remained relatively constant
over the past two hours, with downstream airmass destabilization
tempered by widespread cloud cover thus far. Northern portion of the
line has recently shown a bit more eastward propagation over the
past half hour as well as some sharpening of the reflectivity
gradient along its leading edge. A mesoscale convective vortex may
be developing in this vicinity of the line, which could be
contributing to this increased forward propagation, and a few
damaging gusts are possible along this portion of the line as it
continues eastward.
Farther south into central TX, convection within this portion of the
line is weaker and less organized along the leading edge of the
outflow, with an increasingly disorganized, banded structure with
southern extent. However, deep convection has been realized within
the warm sector ahead of the line over Hamilton County. Deep-layer
shear profiles support the potential for supercells, particularly
with any more discrete development, with low-level curvature
moderately supportive of tornadoes as well. Modest buoyancy will be
limiting factor, but a low-probability potential for a brief tornado
or two exists.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 10/25/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…OUN…EWX…SJT…
LAT…LON 32219899 33349874 33739764 33239685 31529706 30119835
30279962 32219899
Comments