MD 2263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX HILL COUNTRY/CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
Areas affected…TX Hill Country/Central TX
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 261337Z – 261530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Threat for brief tornadoes exists across central TX/TX
Hill Country for the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION…Recent surface observations reveal a very moist air
mass in place across the TX Hill Country into central TX, with
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid
70s. This moisture is fostering modest buoyancy, with recent
mesoanalysis estimating 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. A good portion of this
buoyancy is confined to the low levels, as evidenced by 0-3 km
MLCAPE around 100 J/kg across much of the area. Robust low-level
shear is also in place, with recent VAD profiles from EWX sampling
over 20 kt of 0-1 km shear and near 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km
storm-relative helicity. This combination of low-level buoyancy and
shear could result in brief tornadoes, despite relatively small
updrafts and limited storm depth. Low to mid-level flow across this
area is expected to weaken throughout the day, with the stronger
flow translating northeastward with time. This should limit the
duration of the tornado potential, and suggests the low-probability
tornado threat is likely maximizing currently.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 10/26/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…HGX…FWD…CRP…EWX…
LAT…LON 28699867 29279887 29629875 30009845 30539755 30929696
30609628 29059710 28579798 28699867
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