MD 2264 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023
Areas affected…portions of eastern North Dakota into extreme
northwestern Minnesota
Concerning…Heavy snow
Valid 270321Z – 270915Z
SUMMARY…Occasional instances of heavy snow, including 1-1.5
inch/hour snowfall rates, are possible tonight across portions of
eastern North Dakota into extreme northwestern Minnesota.
DISCUSSION…A pronounced mid-level trough, located over western SD,
is poised to overspread the eastern Dakotas over the next few hours,
increasing deep-layer ascent and supporting higher precipitation
rates across eastern portions of the Northern Plains tonight. At the
same time, modest northeasterly 850 mb warm-air advection (to the
northwest of a surface low) over the Upper MS Valley will continue
to increase low-level lift and moisture ahead of an ongoing snow
band across central ND and northern SD. Given near saturation at 700
mb (which is also in proximity to the dendritic growth zone),
increased deep-layer ascent tonight will promote moderate to heavy
snow. Some of the latest CAM guidance (i.e. deterministic HRRR and
HREF- ensemble probabilities) suggests that the best chance for
1-1.5 inch/hour snowfall rates will be across northeast ND into
extreme northwest MN in the 05-09Z (Midnight – 4 AM CDT) time frame.
..Squitieri.. 10/27/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FGF…BIS…
LAT…LON 45980148 47280106 48260061 48640015 48939928 49049847
49039807 49049703 48759676 48229670 47649706 46719865
46239972 45980045 45980148
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