MD 2265 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS…EASTERN MISSOURI…AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0416 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023
Areas affected…portions of central Illinois…eastern
Missouri…and northern Arkansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 272116Z – 272245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A damaging gust or two is possible this evening with the
stronger storms. The severe threat should remain isolated at best,
and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms have gradually been increasing in number
and intensity along a eastward-progressing surface cold front across
portions of the central MS Valley. Modest low-level convergence
along the cold front appears to be the primary forcing mechanism for
convection, with the preceding ambient environment characterized by
thin (500-1000 J/kg) SBCAPE profiles (driven by adequate low-level
moisture but poor tropospheric lapse rates), and elongated
hodographs. As such, the stronger storms could become multicellular
or perhaps briefly transient-supercellular, capable of producing a
couple of damaging gusts. Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected
to be sparse, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 10/27/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PAH…ILX…MEG…LSX…LZK…SGF…TSA…
LAT…LON 35089399 37409202 39208975 39638888 39648822 39288795
38548809 38018851 36898965 35729123 35059244 35089399
Comments