MD 2269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023
Areas affected…portions of the Florida Keys
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 151751Z – 152015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A brief tornado/waterspout is possible over the Florida
Keys over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity over
the past few hours around the FL Keys, some of which have shown
occasional instances of transient low-level rotation. Mid-level
lapse rates remain poor over the region. However, the combination of
surface heating amid mid 70s F surface dewpoints should support
500-1000 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE through the afternoon.
Coinciding the buoyancy axis should be increasing 850 mb flow, which
would support modestly curved low-level hodographs. As such, the
stronger, more persistent thunderstorms should continue to exhibit
at least brief periods of low-level rotation and a tornado (or
tornadic waterspout) remains possible around the FL Keys through the
afternoon hours. The tornado threat however is quite sparse, so a
Tornado Watch issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 11/15/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…KEY…
LAT…LON 24518228 24678194 25028114 25218054 25158027 24908019
24588039 24378086 24348145 24358194 24518228
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