MD 0227 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39…40… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Areas affected…Parts of central IL
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39…40…
Valid 141035Z – 141200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39, 40
continues.
SUMMARY…Localized strong/damaging gusts remain possible this
morning.
DISCUSSION…A small MCS is moving across western IL early this
morning, with recent reports of severe gusts in McDonough County. An
embedded mesovortex recently developed in Knox County, IL, in
relatively close proximity to an outflow boundary and also the
synoptic warm front. MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (greater with southern
extent) and strong deep-layer shear (as noted on the KILX VWP) will
continue to support organized convection through the early morning.
While the northern part of the MCS and related MCV will continue
moving into a relatively cool/stable environment across northern IL,
some short-term threat for localized strong/damaging gusts may
persist, especially near/south of the warm front. Stronger updrafts
along the leading edge of the cold pool could also pose a transient
hail threat. Finally, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the
intersection of the leading outflow and warm front, though lingering
low-level stability may temper this threat to some extent.
..Dean.. 03/14/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LOT…ILX…
LAT…LON 41028804 40448769 39878799 39538929 39539007 39559034
39699046 40039018 40288991 40698977 41028981 41058962
41028804
