MD 2270 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2023
Areas affected…the Florida Keys
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 152102Z – 152330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated tornado/tornadic waterspout threat continues
across the Florida Keys area. Given the sparse and spatially
confined nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…Strong thunderstorms, with several showing brief bouts
of low-level rotation, continue along and just south of the FL Keys
in proximity to a quasi-stationary surface boundary. To the
southwest of Key West, a small bow-echo signature continues to surge
quickly to the southeast with strong gust potential, and may
overturn the airmass/reduce instability along its way. Ahead of this
bow-echo feature, an MCV has materialized along and just north of
the aforementioned surface boundary and is likely benefiting from
locally stronger low-level shear. Semi-discrete cells within and
ahead of this MCV may encounter locally backed low-level
winds/enlarged hodographs, and an isolated supercellular/tornadic
waterspout remains possible with any of the stronger storms.
..Squitieri.. 11/15/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…KEY…
LAT…LON 24458230 24958151 25228075 25427983 25307945 24877935
24417951 24108018 23998159 24028170 24458230
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