MD 2271 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023
Areas affected…portions of central/southeast OK
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 200628Z – 200830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A couple of stronger thunderstorms may produce half-inch
to nearly one-inch diameter hail over the next few hours. A severe
thunderstorm watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION…A couple of stronger thunderstorms have develop late
this evening over central OK. This activity is on the margins of
stronger 0-6 km shear focused along the Red River. KTLX VWP data
indicated around 35 kt effective-shear magnitudes. Modified 00z RAOB
from OUN suggests this activity is rooted between 850 and 700 mb and
on the nose of steeper midlevel lapse rates overspreading the area
from the west. These steeper midlevel lapse rates are contributing
to weak instability, with generally 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE noted in
latest mesoanalysis. While there is some modest elongation of the
hodograph based on KTLX VWP data, given the overall thermodynamic
environment, any stronger convection will likely only be maintained
briefly. This stronger activity may produce nickel to briefly
quarter-size hail for a few hours into the overnight hours. A severe
thunderstorm watch is not expected given the marginal nature of the
threat.
..Leitman/Edwards.. 11/20/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TSA…OUN…
LAT…LON 35039740 35429688 35629583 35599508 35429467 35029462
34749472 34679484 34459554 34309619 34379701 34589727
35039740
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