Mesoscale Discussion 2276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023
Areas affected…Central/Southwest MS…Southeast LA
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 202114Z – 202315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe
hazards, including tornadoes, will continue eastward into central
and southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana later this
afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms, including several supercells, continue
to evolve eastward over southeast TX and LA, ahead of an approaching
upper-level trough and associated cold front. Modest destabilization
has occurred within the downstream air mass from west-central MS
into southeast LA. This region is displaced north and east of the
better low-level moisture over southwest LA, but a large area of mid
to upper 60s dewpoints exists across south-central and southeast LA.
This should continue to advect northeastward ahead of the
approaching upper trough, contributing to further destabilization
over the next few hours. Low-level flow is also expected to increase
ahead of this upper trough, with the resulting combination of
buoyancy and shear contributing to a continued threat for severe
thunderstorms this evening.
Given the strong shear, primary severe risk is tornadoes, a few of
which could be strong, with some threat for damaging gusts and/or
isolated hail as well. A watch will likely be needed within the next
hour or two to address this severe potential.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 31989122 32789080 32969009 32868950 32648917 32308896
32018889 31728901 31068930 30578977 30379056 30429140