MD 2281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023
Areas affected…portions of the Florida Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 211636Z – 211730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A brief tornado or two may accompany low-topped supercells
as they approach the FL Panhandle shoreline. The severe threat
should stay isolated over the next couple of hours, so a WW issuance
is not expected in the near-term.
DISCUSSION…Low-topped supercells have developed within the
low-level warm-air-advection axis and are approaching the western FL
Panhandle. Along the coast, strong veering and strengthening of the
low-level wind profile supports enlarged hodographs. While dewpoints
are reaching 70 F along the coast, weak diurnal heating beneath poor
tropospheric lapse rates are resulting in thin CAPE profiles (with
SBCAPE struggling to exceed 500 J/kg). As such, the strong low-level
shear may support a brief tornado across the western FL Panhandle,
but the severe threat should remain sparse at best over the next
couple of hours, and a WW issuance not anticipated.
Should more appreciable surface heating occur through the afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front, a relatively more robust severe
threat could materialize. The region will be monitored more
carefully for such a scenario and the need for a WW issuance later
today.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 11/21/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TAE…MOB…
LAT…LON 30188678 30668638 30938595 30888533 30428470 29988485
29848538 29908620 30188678
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