Mesoscale Discussion 2283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023
Areas affected…far southeast Alabama…southwest Georgia…Florida
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 212326Z – 220200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…The risk for an isolated, brief tornado may persist for
another 2 hours or so, from parts of southeast Alabama into
southwest Georgia. Given the short time frame and areal extent of
the threat, a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION…An isolated supercell is currently ongoing over far
southeast AL, just ahead of a line of storms along a cold front. The
air mass ahead of the front is reasonably unstable to support severe
storms given the shear, but overall large-scale support is dwindling
as the low-level jet shifts northeastward.
In the short term, sufficient instability of 500-1000 J/kg and 0-1
SRH of 150-180 m2/s2 may sustain a localized supercell/tornado risk,
with ongoing activity, with a relatively limited threat corridor
along and east of the cold front.
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
LAT…LON 30998608 31468575 32018514 32438451 32548387 32298346
31828348 31098405 30758473 30668533 30798587 30788604