MD 2283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…SOUTHWEST GEORGIA…FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023
Areas affected…far southeast Alabama…southwest Georgia…Florida
Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 212326Z – 220200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…The risk for an isolated, brief tornado may persist for
another 2 hours or so, from parts of southeast Alabama into
southwest Georgia. Given the short time frame and areal extent of
the threat, a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION…An isolated supercell is currently ongoing over far
southeast AL, just ahead of a line of storms along a cold front. The
air mass ahead of the front is reasonably unstable to support severe
storms given the shear, but overall large-scale support is dwindling
as the low-level jet shifts northeastward.
In the short term, sufficient instability of 500-1000 J/kg and 0-1
SRH of 150-180 m2/s2 may sustain a localized supercell/tornado risk,
with ongoing activity, with a relatively limited threat corridor
along and east of the cold front.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 11/21/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FFC…TAE…BMX…
LAT…LON 30998608 31468575 32018514 32438451 32548387 32298346
31828348 31098405 30758473 30668533 30798587 30788604
30998608
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