MD 2292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwestern
Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 272116Z - 272245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat should persist for at least a
few more hours.
DISCUSSION...Transient supercell structures have supported sparse
tornado development this afternoon despite gradually weakening
low-level shear profiles. Given modest surface heating, surface
temperatures have warmed to near 70 F, contributing up to 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE (per 21Z mesoanalysis) where surface dewpoints have climbed
to the upper 60s F. The best low-level moisture and dewpoints reside
roughly from Jones County, MS to the Mobile Bay area, and this is
where the most robust thunderstorm development (with strong
low-level rotation and/or tornadoes) has occurred. Given the limited
overlap of the best low-level shear and moisture, a localized
tornado threat may persist for only a few more hours.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30258926 30588961 31088964 32348895 32798852 32848815
32508796 31958789 31398759 30958716 30608708 30278734
30098841 30258926
