MD 2295 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LA AND SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 2295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Areas affected...eastern LA and southern MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 281249Z - 281445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A long-duration severe threat may begin this morning near
and east of the Mississippi River in Louisiana/Mississippi. This
threat should remain lower-end and isolated for several hours before
greater intensity/coverage occurs this afternoon. While a tornado
watch will undoubtedly be needed later today, confidence is low on
needing one through mid-morning.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across parts of
LA into southwest MS. Regenerative development may persist for many
hours in the southeast LA/southwest MS corridor where low-level warm
theta-e advection continues in the wake of long-lived,
quasistationary convection over the north-central Gulf. 12Z JAN/LCH
observed soundings sampled relatively modest low-level hodograph
curvature but favorable effective bulk shear for occasional updraft
rotation. This could yield an isolated threat for all hazards this
morning. A more prominent increase in severe potential is expected
into the afternoon, as low-level shear increases substantially
midday and beyond.
..Grams/Edwards.. 12/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 31409191 31829181 32059164 32359117 32439063 32409007
32078967 31638930 31208930 30898938 30228946 30008975
29919016 29959070 30149118 30439184 30699205 31409191
