MD 0230 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Areas affected…Portions of north-central TX and central/eastern OK
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 141546Z – 141745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent
SUMMARY…An increasing threat for very large (2-4 inch) hail,
severe/damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will
necessitate watch issuance.
DISCUSSION…Cu is deepening late this morning across western north
into north-central TX and central OK along a surface trough/dryline
feature. A large reservoir of buoyancy is already present across
this region per area 12Z soundings, with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
based on 15Z mesoanalysis. Continued daytime heating will likely
result in further erosion of the low-level cap, and convective
initiation seems likely within an hour, or sooner (by 1630Z/1130 AM
CDT), especially across north-central TX into south-central OK. Very
large hail of 2-4 inches in diameter will likely be the main threat
with supercells that develop, as steep mid-level lapse rates and
strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt easily support robust mid-level
updraft rotation and intensity. The tornado threat is less clear,
especially with time this afternoon as the low-level jet across this
region is forecast to gradually veer and weaken through the day.
But, sufficient low-level shear currently exists to support some
low-level updraft rotation and associated tornado risk.
Severe/damaging winds also appear possible, especially if any small
clusters can develop with time later this afternoon. Given current
convective/observational trends, watch issuance will likely be
needed soon.
..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TSA…FWD…OUN…
LAT…LON 33619863 35589696 36289620 36659549 36559465 35749455
34959509 33619640 33049704 33039840 33159882 33619863
