MD 0268 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56… FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Areas affected…Parts of south TX
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56…
Valid 170824Z – 171000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56
continues.
SUMMARY…Some threat for localized hail and strong gusts remains
possible across parts of south TX, but the threat appears too
isolated for additional watch issuance.
DISCUSSION…Convection has struggled to remain organized across
parts of south TX early this morning, though occasional upticks in
intensity have been noted with individual cells, accompanied by
increased hail potential (as noted in MRMS MESH data). While MUCAPE
is generally in the 1000-2000 J/kg range across the region, some
MUCINH remains due to warm temperatures in the 800-700 mb layer.
Much of the convection is likely rooted near/above this layer, with
less available buoyancy, though isolated hail cannot be ruled out
with the strongest updrafts.
If any cells can become rooted closer to the surface, then available
buoyancy and effective shear would both increase, with some
supercell potential. However, this scenario remains highly
conditional, with large-scale ascent expected to weaken as a
convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough begins to move away
from the region. Unless an uptick in storm organization is observed,
additional watch issuance is not expected.
..Dean/Thompson.. 03/17/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…HGX…CRP…EWX…BRO…
LAT…LON 28299873 28949784 28819669 28239650 27049686 26589759
26709857 26929893 27629881 28189874 28299873
