MD 0271 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024
Areas affected…Eastern TX Panhandle into
Northwestern/North-Central OK
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 201959Z – 202200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated instance of hail and/or damaging gusts are
possible this afternoon and evening from the northeastern Texas
Panhandle into northwest/north-central Oklahoma. A landspout or two
is also possible.
DISCUSSION…Recent surface analysis places a low over the the
northwest TX (over the AMA to BPC vicinity). Leading edge of the
cold front, indicated by weak surface troughing, extends
east-northeastward from this low into northwest OK and then more
eastward into north-central OK. Cumulus has been deepening along
this boundary for the past few hours with thunderstorm initiation
realized about 30 to 45 mins ago. Despite only modest buoyancy,
these storms have steadily deepened, with echo tops now over 30kft.
This general trend is expected to persist as convergence persists
along the surface trough and the atmosphere continues to
destabilize.
Overall storm depth and severity will be mitigated by the limited
buoyancy, but an isolated updraft or two may briefly by strong
enough to produce hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and high storm
bases also suggest the potential for damaging gusts as storms
collapse. Lastly, given the sharp backing of the wind field near the
surface trough, from southerly south of the boundary to
northeasterly just north of it, notable surface vorticity is likely
present along and just north of the boundary. Consequently, the
environment supports the potential for a brief landspout or two.
..Mosier.. 03/20/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OUN…AMA…
LAT…LON 35990067 36440009 36639894 36589739 36169732 35699789
35569839 35449879 35289930 35169980 35170037 35490067
35990067
