SPC MD 276

SPC MD 276

MD 0276 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Areas affected…Parts of north and central Texas

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 211854Z – 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Strong to severe thunderstorm development is expected over
the next couple hours. Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts
are the primary concerns. A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION…Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening in the
vicinity of a mesoscale low over northwest TX, where steep low-level
lapse rates are impinging on middle/upper 50s surface dewpoints.
Isolated convective initiation is underway in this area of focused
mesoscale ascent. Farther south, cumulus is more shallow along the
dryline (owing to weak low-level convergence), though deepening
cumulus is developing west of the dryline in a
well-mixed/destabilizing boundary layer. Aided by gradually
strengthening DCVA preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing
west TX, initial thunderstorms will develop/intensify along/south of
the mesoscale low, where low-level convergence is maximized. Around
35 kt of effective shear (characterized by a mostly straight
hodograph) will support initially discrete cells, with an isolated
hail risk (potentially up to 1.5 inches with the stronger storms)
and locally strong/severe gusts. Farther south, thunderstorms should
evolve out of the steep low-level lapse rate plume, with a similar
risk of isolated hail and slightly greater severe-wind risk, given
the steeper low-level lapse rates and stronger deep-layer shear.

With time, these storms should increase in coverage and spread
eastward, as the large-scale ascent continues to overspread the
region. This will promote localized upscale growth into several
loosely organized clusters, though the strongest deep-layer shear
may be displaced to the south of this activity — potentially
limiting convective organization and favoring outflow dominant
storms. Nevertheless, strong to severe gusts (generally 50-60 mph)
will become the main concern, though isolated large hail will remain
possible with the more discrete activity. Current thinking is that
the severe hail/wind risk may remain too isolated/marginal for a
watch, though convective trends will be monitored through the
afternoon.

..Weinman/Goss.. 03/21/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…FWD…OUN…EWX…SJT…LUB…

LAT…LON 29909915 29939967 30149991 30600021 31770040 32650038
33380016 33839983 34029939 34089897 34029836 33799780
33399747 32239759 30449798 29959857 29909915

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