MD 0282 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHERN FL TOWARD THE KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Areas affected…far southern FL toward the Keys
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 221821Z – 222045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Storms from far southern Florida toward the Keys may
remain capable of producing waterspouts, with an eventual
possibility of a brief tornado.
DISCUSSION…Storms have increased in coverage near an east-west
oriented boundary situation over far southern FL. North of this
boundary, surface winds remain out of the east/northeast, and
through a relatively deep layer. VWPs near Miami show around 2 km
depth of east to southeasterly winds. Farther south toward Key West,
winds have veered to southerly, and this area is also within the
instability plume with MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg.
Although instability is less over land, enhanced vertical vorticity
exists along the boundary, and the gradual increase in theta-e, as
well as increasing flow aloft, could yield a more favorable
environment for a brief tornado with time.
VWPs and objective analysis generally indicate 0-1 SRH below 100
m2/s2, however, these values appear to be slowly increasing. In
addition, as the cluster of storms persists, further shear
enhancement could occur due to convectively induced pressure falls.
At this time, a watch does not appear necessary due to the low-end
nature of the threat as well as minimal land area.
..Jewell/Hart.. 03/22/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…KEY…
LAT…LON 25118035 24948056 24888137 24938159 25068164 25308144
25498111 25538080 25498022 25358019 25118035