MD 0292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES…WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Areas affected…southwest Kansas across the eastern Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles…western Oklahoma and northwest Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 241903Z – 242100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered storms are likely to form along a dryline this
afternoon, and several may become severe. The primary risk will be
from large hail, though locally damaging gusts or a brief tornado
will also be possible.
DISCUSSION…Visible imagery shows substantial high-based convection
forming near and behind the dryline, which currently extends from
far southwest KS across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. This area
is within a deep-layer steep lapse rate plume.
Ahead of the dryline, clearing and heating are occurring, which will
help destabilize the air mass. However, moisture is currently
limited with only 40s to lower 50s F dewpoints in general.
As the dryline continues to move rapidly east, a north-south broken
line of storms is forecast to form, with a few robust cells
producing hail. The instability axis is forecast to remain
relatively narrow, especially near the OK/TX portion of the dryline
initially. With time, moisture advection may result in a more
favorable area for supercells later today/evening into northwest TX,
as surface observations indicate increasing dewpoints. The strong
deep-layer shear combined with steep lapse rates will favor hail
across the entire area, with any brief tornado threat limited to the
narrow uncapped area along the dryline. Given the strong flow aloft
over OK and TX, storms may move off the dryline rather quickly,
perhaps becoming elevated farther east. However, somewhat weaker
flow over KS, as well as a wider warm sector, could sustain a
supercell or two with hail and brief tornado risk over a relatively
wider area.
..Jewell/Hart.. 03/24/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OUN…DDC…SJT…LUB…AMA…MAF…
LAT…LON 32580108 33430086 34170077 34970068 36010066 36610084
37250114 37670103 38060081 38530017 38569957 38299915
37419888 35889845 35819845 35009842 33909873 33269903
32799964 32590007 32580108
