MD 0296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS…SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Areas affected…Northwest Kansas…Southern Nebraska
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 242305Z – 250130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated severe threat will likely continue across parts
of northwest Kansas and southern Nebraska. Isolated large hail and a
few strong wind gusts will be possible. Weather watch issuance
remains possible, although the severe threat is only expected to
persist for a few more hours.
DISCUSSION…The latest surface analysis shows a 987 mb low over far
southwest Kansas, with an inverted surface trough extending
north-northeastward from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska.
Several linear-based storms are ongoing near the trough. In spite of
surface dewpoints only in the mid to upper 40s F, the RAP has 500 to
750 J/kg of MLCAPE. The last WSR-88D VWP at Hastings has 30-35 knots
of 0-6 km shear, and veering of the winds with height in the lowest
2 km. This should be enough to continue an isolated severe threat.
Isolated large hail could occur with strongest of updrafts, along
with a few marginally severe wind gusts. Also, a potential for a
landspout tornado could continue along and near the eastern edge of
the convection.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…GID…DDC…GLD…
LAT…LON 39249893 39899845 40489821 40769837 40919888 40919931
40839961 40609986 40409998 39800040 39470051 39210036
39099993 39079945 39249893
