MD 0297 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59… FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA…NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Areas affected…Southern Oklahoma…North Texas
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59…
Valid 242346Z – 250145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59
continues.
SUMMARY…Isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts and potential for
a brief tornado will likely continue for a couple more hours. As
this storms moves to the east of WW 59, a local extension in area
may be needed across parts of the area.
DISCUSSION…The latest surface analysis shows a trough extending
southward across west Texas, with a dryline to the east of the
trough. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the east of the
dryline in northwest Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the mid
to upper 50s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range. The Frederick WSR-88D VWP currently has 0-6 km shear near 60
knots, and veering winds with height in the lowest 1 km. This, along
with strong large-scale ascent associated with an approaching
shortwave trough, will support a threat for supercells and large
hail. Wind damage will also be possible. In addition, low-level
shear appears sufficient for a tornado threat, but any threat should
remain isolated and brief. As the storm in eastern Wichita County
near the Red River moves further east into the weaker instability, a
downtrend is eventually expected to occur.
..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/24/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…OUN…
LAT…LON 34699742 34629787 34389836 33959866 33519865 33189838
33089792 33119749 33249715 33469683 33829667 34179665
34569692 34699742
