SPC MD 30

SPC MD 30

MD 0030 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FL…COASTAL/EASTERN GA…MUCH OF SC…AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL NC

Mesoscale Discussion 0030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Areas affected…Portions of north FL…coastal/eastern GA…much of
SC…and extreme south-central NC

Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely

Valid 091545Z – 091745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…Conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable
for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds over the next couple of
hours. Tornado Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION…A broken line of convection extends from northeast GA
to the FL Panhandle along/near a surface cold front. A powerful
upper cyclone is centered over the mid MS Valley this morning, with
associated 60-80+ kt southerly low-level jet rapidly advecting
moisture northward ahead of the line. Various recent RAP/NAM
forecast soundings across north FL into coastal/eastern GA and much
of SC suggest that it will take at least 62-63F surface dewpoints
amid modest daytime heating to aid weak boundary-layer
destabilization and the potential for surface-based thunderstorms.
Latest surface observations indicate that sufficient low-level
moisture is already in place as far north as central GA/SC.

Current expectations are that this continued low-level warm/moist
advection will likely support a severe threat as far north as parts
of upstate SC and towards Charlotte NC. Area VWPs ahead of the
ongoing QLCS show low-level flow quickly strengthening to 60-70+ kt
above 1 km, with ample low-level shear available to support updraft
rotation and embedded tornadic circulations within the line.
Severe/damaging downdraft winds of 60-75 mph also appear likely
given the strength of the low-level flow. With the severe potential
likely to increase across this region over the next few hours,
Tornado Watch issuance is likely.

..Gleason/Hart.. 01/09/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…CHS…CAE…GSP…JAX…

LAT…LON 29908244 31848219 32578194 33248219 34118244 35028094
34778040 33478014 32807960 32018073 30918133 29738123
29458216 29908244

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