MD 0306 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Areas affected…central Florida Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 261704Z – 261900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Marginal risk of wind and a tornado through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION…A broken line of convection is ongoing this afternoon
across southern Alabama into the central Florida Panhandle. This
activity remains elevated, with surface inhibition evident from
modified 12z observed soundings from Tallahassee and in forecast RAP
soundings along the Gulf. In addition, extensive mid-level cloud
cover remains in place across much of the Panhandle this afternoon,
limiting destabilization. As a result, the most favorable warm
sector remains offshore, with minimal MLCAPE observed inland. Over
the next couple of hours as this convection moves eastward, a few
instances of more robust embedded storms may be possible where the
warm sector can creep inland. Wind profiles indicate deep layer
shear around 55-60 kts. Given that convection is likely rooted above
the surface, much of the low-level cyclonic curvature of hodographs
will not be realized. Should the warm sector move inland and a storm
could become surface based, an isolated tornado could be possible,
though weak low-level lapse rates and strong surface inhibition will
likely work to further inhibit this potential. Otherwise, the main
threats will remain occasional gusty winds. A watch is unlikely to
be needed at this time.
..Thornton/Hart.. 03/26/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TAE…MOB…
LAT…LON 30458635 30858593 30958555 30918513 30548400 30268382
30138382 29808431 29598493 29688548 29748581 30048640
30178664 30458635
