MD 0308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE…FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Areas affected…Eastern Florida Panhandle…Far Southern Georgia
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 270355Z – 270630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated severe threat may continue for another hour or
two across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and far southern
Georgia. The threat is expected to be marginal and weather watch
issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION…The latest KTLH high-resolution radar shows a small
cluster of thunderstorms, with one distinct rotating cell, near the
Florida-Georgia state line to the northwest of Tallahassee. This
cluster is located in a moist but weakly unstable airmass, where
surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by
the RAP near 250 J/kg. The WSR-88D VWP in far southern Georgia has
0-6 km shear near 45 knots, and 0-3km storm-relative helicity around
270 m2/s2. This may be enough to continue an isolated severe threat
over the next hour, as storms move eastward across the eastern
Florida Panhandle. Marginally severe winds and hail will be the
primary threats. Poor lapse rates are expected to limit the overall
severe potential.
..Broyles/Goss.. 03/27/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JAX…TAE…
LAT…LON 30478306 30318388 30298451 30498466 30878453 31068412
31128313 30868285 30478306
