SPC MD 31

SPC MD 31

MD 0031 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

Mesoscale Discussion 0031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

Areas affected…Portions of the northern and central FL Peninsula

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely

Valid 091742Z – 091945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…A line of thunderstorms will move quickly eastward this
afternoon, posing a threat for severe/damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION…As of 1740Z, convection extends in a nearly continuous
line from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into north FL and
southern/eastern GA ahead of a cold front. Strong deep-layer shear
associated with a powerful mid/upper-level cyclone will continue to
support updraft intensity and organization with this activity as it
approaches the FL Peninsula over the next couple of hours. A very
moist low-level airmass is already in place over much of the
northern/central FL Peninsula, with surface dewpoints generally in
the mid to upper 60s. Filtered diurnal heating with some cloud
breaks has allowed for modest boundary-layer destabilization so far,
even with poor lapse rates/residual capping noted in the 850-700 mb
layer from various RAP/NAM forecast soundings. While FL remains on
the southern extent of an enhanced low-level jet, around 50-60 kt of
south-southwesterly flow near/above 1 km has been estimated from the
KTBW and KMLB radars. Corresponding 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 will
be more than adequate to foster low-level rotation and some tornado
threat with circulations embedded within the line. Greater potential
for severe/damaging winds is evident given the mainly linear mode
expected and strength of the low-level flow. With the ongoing fast
eastward movement of the line, watch issuance will likely be needed
for parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula this afternoon.

..Gleason/Hart.. 01/09/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…MLB…TBW…JAX…

LAT…LON 29478272 29198122 28738090 27728110 26778218 27538281
28118286 28718275 29148303 29478272

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