MD 0312 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Areas affected…eastern iowa and northern Illinois
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 300152Z – 300315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening with
some hail possible.
DISCUSSION…A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening
from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. Instability was quite
limited on the 00Z DVN RAOB. However, continued warm air advection
has likely increased instability and moistened the column between
850 and 700mb over the past few hours. Therefore, despite the
minimal instability, the moderate isentropic ascent associated with
a ~40 knot low-level jet has proven sufficient for storms in the
region. Given the strong unidirectional shear in the cloud-bearing
layer, a few stronger storms with rotating updrafts are possible.
Some hail to near 1 inch is possible, but expect the majority of
hail to remain sub-severe. Isentropic ascent is expected to weaken
in the next few hours as 850-700mb flow veers. This should bring an
end to the marginal hail threat by late evening.
..Bentley/Goss.. 03/30/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LOT…ILX…DVN…DMX…
LAT…LON 41279313 41959246 42419107 42198898 41728788 40968764
40528833 40548968 40639156 40719245 40829282 41279313
