MD 0323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024
Areas affected…Portions of Middle/Upper Ohio Valley
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 011946Z – 012145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Should storms develop/mature, large hail and damaging
winds will be possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated this
afternoon and the need for a watch is not certain. Convective trends
will be monitored.
DISCUSSION…Destabilization continues along/south of a warm front
within the Ohio Valley vicinity. A few weak convective cores within
southern Indiana continue eastward. These storms may be capable of
small hail. Continued heating/warm advection within the frontal zone
may lead to additional storms along the boundary. Effective shear of
40-50 kts and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will mean potentially
organized storms, should they mature. The main uncertainty is how
intense these storms will become given neutral to modest mid-level
height rises this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated in the short
term, but convective trends will be monitored. A more substantial
severe threat is expected later this evening/overnight.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…RLX…JKL…ILN…LMK…IND…PAH…ILX…
LAT…LON 37838298 37708422 37858556 37978682 38308760 39358750
39728640 39488323 39028139 38288144 37838298
