MD 0347 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MO…SOUTHERN IL…WESTERN KY…AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0347
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024
Areas affected…Portions of southeastern MO…southern IL…western
KY…and extreme southwestern IN
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 021648Z – 021845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Once thunderstorms develop along/ahead of a cold front,
they will quickly become severe, which will likely warrant watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION…Cu is gradually becoming more agitated along a surface
wind shift line across southeastern MO, and convective initiation
appears likely within the next hour or so. The airmass downstream
has become at least weakly unstable, with surface temperatures
warming into the mid 70s, with surface dewpoints also increasing
into the mid to upper 60s. Corresponding MLCAPE generally ranges
from 500-1000 J/kg at the moment, but continued daytime heating of
this moist airmass should allow for additional destabilization
through the afternoon. Very strong effective bulk shear of 50-60+ kt
will easily support supercells with associated threat for large
hail. Damaging winds will also be possible with any clusters that
can consolidate along the wind shift line and spread eastward. The
tornado threat remains somewhat unclear, particularly with northward
extent into southern IL/IN where the airmass is still attempting to
destabilize. Regardless, recent VWPs from KPAH/KVWX show ample
low-level shear present to support updraft rotation and some risk
for tornadoes with any supercells that can be sustained. Watch
issuance will likely be needed once convective initiation appears
imminent.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PAH…
LAT…LON 36949026 38038938 38408876 38358802 37758770 37218770
36628898 36689000 36949026
