MD 0363 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024
Areas affected…far southeast Alabama…southwest Georgia and the
Florida Panhandle
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 030613Z – 030745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms may develop over
parts of the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia through the
overnight hours. Watch issuance is uncertain and area will continue
to be monitored.
DISCUSSION…Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
lift northeast into portions of the MCD area through the remainder
of the overnight hours. Strong vertical shear is in place across
this region with regional VWP data indicating shear suitable for
supercells. However, a 06z RAOB from TLH shows substantial capping
near 700 mb. Forecast soundings suggest capping may erode
sufficiently for surface-based storms late tonight into the early
morning hours as large-scale ascent increases. However, weak
instability and poor lapse rates may preclude a more robust severe
threat. Trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch
issuance.
..Leitman/Smith.. 04/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JAX…FFC…TAE…BMX…MOB…
LAT…LON 31578615 32008485 32008360 31908302 31278289 30758307
29398429 29398536 29978639 30698634 31578615
