MD 0376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA INTO THE SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
Mesoscale Discussion 0376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024
Areas affected…parts of north central Nevada into the Sawtooth
Mountains vicinity of south central Idaho
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 041911Z – 042145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…One or two supercells may gradually develop within a
narrow pre-frontal corridor, and pose at least some risk for severe
hail and wind by 3-5 PM MDT. While the need for a watch is not
currently anticipated, trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION…Latest objective analysis suggests that more rapid
boundary-layer destabilization is now underway, particularly in a
narrow pre-frontal corridor west of Twin Falls toward the Sawtooth
Mountains vicinity, west of Sun Valley. This is occurring in
response to continuing insolation and low-level warm advection,
beneath cool mid-levels which may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE
increasing in excess of 500 J/kg within the next few hours. As this
occurs, models indicate that frontogenetic forcing for ascent will
also strengthen along this corridor, downstream of a developing
frontal wave migrating northeastward out of the Great Basin.
An area of intensifying thunderstorm development is already ongoing
to the southwest of Owyhee NV, and this activity seems to continue
to gradually strengthen and organize through 21-23Z, while
propagating north-northeastward within a strongly sheared
environment beneath an 80-100+ kt south-southwesterly 300 mb jet.
With increasing inflow of the destabilizing boundary-layer air, one
or two supercell structures may evolve, accompanied by at least some
risk for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/04/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PIH…MSO…BOI…LKN…
LAT…LON 44881413 43561430 41031651 41331720 42281650 42961602
43791576 44881413
