MD 0377 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA…NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024
Areas affected…parts of southern Nebraska…northern and central
Kansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 061819Z – 062045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms are expected to gradually develop and
intensify this afternoon, eventually posing at least some risk for
severe wind and hail. By 4-6 PM CDT, this may include increasing
potential for supercells, east of Hill City into the Concordia
vicinity and southward toward Emporia.
DISCUSSION…One short wave perturbation already appears to have
emerged from the base of larger-scale mid/upper troughing
progressing out of the Great Basin/Southwest, and is now pivoting
north-northeast of the Front Range. In its wake, an intense
mid-level jet streak currently nosing across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle vicinity may undergo subtle weakening, but still appears
likely to remain in excess of 90 kt around 500 mb, while taking on
more of a west-southwesterly component as it propagates toward the
Russell/Hutchinson vicinity of central Kansas through 21-23Z.
Stronger forcing for ascent is forecast to become focused along the
warm frontal zone associated with a deep occluding cyclone to the
lee of the Front Range, roughly near the western Nebraska/Kansas
border vicinity during the next few hours. This appears likely to
coincide with increasing destabilization, associated with a
deepening mixed boundary-layer to the south of the front. Warm
sector boundary-layer moistening will remain on lower margins for
vigorous convective development, but lower/mid 40s along the warm
front may be sufficient for CAPE up to 500 J/kg, beneath relatively
cool mid-level temperatures (near -20C around 500 mb).
Scattered thunderstorms are already beginning to initiate across
parts of the high plains. In the presence of strong deep-layer
shear, forcing for ascent may gradually focus stronger, organizing
convection near the triple point of the occluding cyclone,
north-northeast of the Hill City vicinity, before this spreads
eastward through late afternoon.
By 21-23Z, it appears that additional, more discrete storms
(including evolving supercells) may gradually begin to initiate
southward along the dryline toward the Wichita area, within a narrow
corridor of better boundary-layer moistening (including surface dew
points in the upper 40s/near 50F).
..Kerr/Guyer.. 04/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OAX…TOP…ICT…GID…LBF…GLD…
LAT…LON 39339911 39710042 39950128 40790103 40749951 40359770
39689640 38309642 38259761 39069826 39339911
