MD 0378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024
Areas affected…much of central Oklahoma into far north-central
Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 061932Z – 062130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated severe hail/wind threat may develop with any
storms that manage to mature and sustain themselves ahead of the
dryline this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Agitated cumulus (albeit with limited vertical
development) have steadily been increasing in coverage along and
immediately ahead of a dryline that continues to rapidly mix
eastward across central OK into far northern TX. Preceding the
dryline is a boundary layer characterized by shallow moisture, which
is overspread by a very dry 700-300 mb layer and modest lapse rates
(i.e. 6-7 C/km range). As such, buoyancy is quite limited, with
SBCAPE expected to peak somewhere between 500-1000 J/kg.
Surface observations show slight veering of the surface winds
immediately preceding the dryline, which is reducing convergence and
limiting convective development up to this point. Nonetheless,
increased convergence and heating ahead of the dryline should
support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon.
Somewhat curved low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation
suggests that multicell and transient supercell structures are
possible with the more sustained storms that are not inhibited by
mid-level dry air entrainment. These storms could produce a couple
of instances of severe wind gusts or hail.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TSA…ICT…FWD…OUN…
LAT…LON 34019809 36499795 36969763 37009720 36899670 36339629
35499612 34539621 33879635 33709671 33659742 34019809
