MD 0386 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST AR INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024
Areas affected…Southeast AR into northern MS and southwest TN
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 082144Z – 082345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated large hail will remain possible through early
evening.
DISCUSSION…Scattered strong storms have developed this afternoon
along the northern periphery of returning low-level moisture from
southeast AR into northern MS and southwest TN. Low/mid 60s F
dewpoints spreading northward into a region where temperatures have
already warmed well into the 70s F has resulted in MLCAPE rising to
1000-1500 J/kg. Effective shear of 40-50 kt and elongated hodographs
will remain supportive of supercell structures, with large hail as
the primary short-term threat. Coverage of the threat will likely
remain rather isolated, but one or two cells may be capable of
producing hail in the 1.5 – 2 inch diameter range, as recently noted
east of Memphis. Watch issuance is unlikely, unless coverage of
hail-producing supercells becomes greater than currently
anticipated.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/08/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OHX…HUN…MEG…JAN…LZK…
LAT…LON 34599199 35489005 35928899 36078804 35898759 35618753
35198785 34838840 34189033 33729192 33879235 34599199
