MD 0395 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO NORTHWESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected…Portions of central/east TX into northwestern LA
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 091348Z – 091545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…A watch may be needed as the threat for tornadoes, large
hail, and damaging winds gradually increases this morning.
DISCUSSION…Warm advection associated with a 35-45 kt southerly
low-level jet, along with ascent attendant to the left exit region
of a southwesterly mid/upper-level jet, is aiding convection across
parts of central/east TX into northwestern LA. Some of this activity
across central TX is occurring near a convectively reinforced
outflow boundary, with a rich low-level airmass present along/south
of this boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in central TX, even though daytime heating
remains muted thus far, with lesser instability into east TX and
northwestern LA. Still, strong deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will
foster updraft organization and supercell potential. Large to very
large hail will be a concern with these supercells as they spread
east-northeastward this morning. An increasing potential for
severe/damaging winds may be realized if a cluster forms along the
outflow boundary/front. Sufficient low-level shear is also present
for low-level updraft rotation and some tornado threat. Watch
issuance may be needed if convection continues to increase in
coverage and intensity across central TX.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LCH…SHV…HGX…FWD…EWX…
LAT…LON 30029806 30829766 31659640 31939477 32179397 32159343
31369333 30959394 29939603 29559685 29579786 30029806
