MD 0396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected…Portions of northwest into central TX
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 091630Z – 091900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms posing a threat for mainly large hail should
gradually increase in coverage through early afternoon. Trends are
being monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION…16Z surface observations show a front draped across
west into north-central TX, with a dryline extending south from the
front towards the Big Bend vicinity. Occasional supercells have been
occurring this morning to the north of the front across western
north TX, with mainly a large hail threat but occasional measured
severe wind gusts too. Recent radar and visible satellite trends
indicate another thunderstorm has developed north of San Angelo near
the front/dryline intersection. The airmass downstream appears
favorable for supercells, with moderate instability and strong
deep-layer shear likely to support updraft organization. As ascent
associated with the upper low over the Southwest and attendant
mid-level jet nosing into the southern High Plains continues to
overspread the warm sector, most high-resolution guidance shows
additional supercells developing through early afternoon. Given the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated/nearly
straight hodographs at mid/upper levels, scattered large to very
large hail (1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) should be the main severe
threat. Isolated strong to locally severe winds may also occur with
any convective downdrafts. Trends will be monitored through the rest
of the morning and into early afternoon for signs of additional
robust thunderstorm development, which may prompt eventual watch
issuance.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…SJT…MAF…
LAT…LON 31800099 32100070 32490019 32839970 32889909 32639864
31919857 31279877 30739924 30420006 30680080 31800099
