MD 0397 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 94… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected…Portions of central TX
Concerning…Tornado Watch 94…
Valid 091712Z – 091845Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.
SUMMARY…A threat for tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds
continues. The need for and timing of a downstream watch into east
Texas remains unclear.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms have remain focused along/very near the
convectively reinforced outflow boundary that is draped southwest to
northeast across central TX. Mergers/interactions between various
thunderstorms have led to an overall messy convective mode. Even so,
the environment remains conditionally favorable for severe
convection, including supercells, given adequate instability and
ample deep-layer shear. In the short term, the tornado threat will
continue to be supported by a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level
jet providing generally 200-300 m2/s2 of effective SRH. But, the
best chance for tornadoes will probably occur with any supercell
that can develop/persist on the southern flank of the ongoing
convection. Similarly, the hail threat will be tied to a supercell
being able to remain at least semi-discrete, which remains
questionable given the ongoing thunderstorm evolution.
Severe/damaging wind potential may increase through the early
afternoon if a cluster can consolidate and spread eastward. The need
for and timing of a downstream watch into east TX remains uncertain,
as widespread cloud cover is slowing airmass recovery along/near the
surface boundary in the wake of earlier convection.
..Gleason.. 04/09/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SHV…HGX…FWD…EWX…
LAT…LON 31279834 31919685 32159564 31969524 31389498 30839633
30489768 30449836 31019839 31279834
