MD 0398 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 94… FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected…Portions of east TX into western/northern LA
Concerning…Tornado Watch 94…
Valid 091852Z – 092015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94 continues.
SUMMARY…Some threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple
tornadoes may continue eastward into east Texas and western/northern
Louisiana. A downstream watch is being considered.
DISCUSSION…A small bowing cluster/MCV has recently developed
across east-central TX along or perhaps just north of the surface
boundary. Gradual airmass recovery is occurring downstream across
east TX into western/northern LA, where surface temperatures have
mostly warmed into the 70s amid persistent easterly near-surface
flow. Weak MLCAPE coupled with strong deep-layer shear may be
sufficient for continued organization to the small cluster as it
moves eastward through the rest of the afternoon. Assuming
sufficient destabilization can occur to support truly surface-based
convection, then damaging winds may be the primary severe threat.
Sufficient low-level shear is also present along the boundary to
support an isolated tornado threat, especially if any supercells can
develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Depending on convective
trends, a downstream watch may be needed for parts of east TX into
western/northern/LA.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LCH…SHV…HGX…FWD…
LAT…LON 32149585 32399522 32449274 32239212 31499206 31289244
31109442 31269615 31669589 32149585
