MD 0400 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected…portions of central Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 092055Z – 092230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…The severe threat is increasing behind an initial round of
storms, with large hail and damaging gusts the main threat. A couple
instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a tornado are also possible. A
new WW issuance will likely be needed to address the impending
severe threat.
DISCUSSION…In the wake of earlier storms, some airmass
modification is underway along the intersection of the dryline and
multiple outflow boundaries. Continued surface heating and greater
ascent from an approaching mid-level trough should encourage the
initiation of strong to severe storms along the aforementioned
boundaries this afternoon into the evening hours. Long, straight
hodographs suggest splitting supercells will likely be the
predominant storm mode, with large hail and damaging gusts the main
threats. A few instances of 2+ inch hail are also possible wherever
storms can interact with a relatively more pristine airmass, where
mid-level lapse rates remain steep. If a supercell can traverse one
of the outflow boundaries for an appreciable period of time, a
tornado cannot be ruled out, though the tornado threat should be
limited by a lack of stronger low-level shear.
Nonetheless, at least a few robust storms may develop over portions
of central TX this afternoon into evening, and a WW issuance may be
needed in the next few hours.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/09/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…EWX…SJT…
LAT…LON 31149965 31079829 30759712 30059710 29679775 29679863
29799942 30019990 30559981 31149965
